Zardari government is preparing to grant 'full autonomy' to Balochistan within the Pakistani federation. In essence, this means Pakistan will soon have its own version of Iraq's Kurdistan. Considering the volatile security situation in the region and the active interest of both the Americans and Indians in wresting Balochistan from Pakistani hands, this would prove to be a kiss of death for Pakistan's national integrity. The US media is quiet these days on the so-called Greater Pashtunistan, but in the last two years, the US media leaked story after story on the feasibility of this option. These leaked reports reflected an organized campaign by people within Pentagon and CIA. This campaign ceased only after protests by Pakistani officials. Another reason why this campaign stopped is to give some space to unknown 'terrorists' who have infiltrated from Afghanistan to Pakistan under the guise of the so-called Pakistani Taliban. The Kabul regime and its Indian and American allies were hoping that the death and mayhem created among Pakistani Pashtuns would be enough to rally the Pashtun of both Pakistan and Afghanistan to demand an independent country. Luckily, the Pakistani Pashtun, who are an important and active part of thePakistani society and the power structure, understood the game and refused to play along despite enticements coming from inside the Afghan territory.
Zardari government to give part of the Balochistan coastal are to the US Navy to construct a port that would serve the US occupation forces in Afghanistan. Surprisingly, the Zardari government is actually considering the option. Mr. Zardari is also eager to get back at China, which refused to financially bail out his corrupt pro-American government. China financed part of the Gwadar project. Meanwhile the potential of the Gwadar port has almost been destroyed and it is a matter of time before Pakistan's inept politicians turn it into another irretrievable mess. First Akbar Bugti and his foreign-supported terrorists attacked the project. Now the political parties in power are playing their usual games over the project in the hope of milking maximum kickbacks. So far the Zardari government is yet to commit funds for the remaining parts of the Gwadar port expansion. This happens while the Indians have completed and operationalized the competing Iranian port of Chah Bahar. The US surprisingly permitted Iranian and Indian companies to build roads in eastern Afghanistan connecting the Indian port despite the American aversion to anything that benefits Iran. Balochistan is an American target. Pakistani politicians and some people within the Pakistani security establishment should make no mistake about it. CIA is supporting Sunni Balochis in Iran while backing an ethnic insurgency in Pakistan. It is not a coincidence that Jundullah in Iran and BLA in Pakistan emerged after the arrival of US military and CIA in Afghanistan, in the past five years to be more specific. Before 2004, there was no BLA or Jundullah anywhere.
Washington continues to refuse to declare the so-called Balochistan Liberation Army a terrorist group despite the fact that this group has claimed responsibility for killing countless college professors and other civilians in random acts of terror in Pakistan over the past five years. Some Pakistani analysts cite strong circumstantial evidence that the CIA is running operations in the area that may not be in the full knowledge of the new US administration and may in fact contradict the stated US policy of not supporting terrorism and covert operations against allies.
Basically, we have the politics of vested interests here in Baluchistan where personal interests dominate political ideologies. Therefore, one does not have to be surprised if differences break out and Bhoothani starts supporting a new candidate. In return of his support to Raisani while making him the CM, Bhoothani, who remained the Deputy Speaker of the Baluchistan Assembly in the previous government, was offered the office of Speakership of the Baluchistan Assembly. He became the first Speaker in the history of Baluchistan to be elected unopposed. He enjoys the support of 13 MPAs in Baluchistan Assembly.
Maulana Abdul Wasay: Wasay is the parliamentary leader of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazal) and the Senior Minister in Baluchistan government. JUI has always had a key role in the coalition governments in Baluchistan. Historically, it never sat on the opposition benches but always supported the provincial governments in return of key ministries. He served as the Planning and Development Minister in the previous government. Wasay is known as a very good negotiator who has got the ability to make and break governments. His party, with 10 seats in Baluchistan Assembly, means a lot not only to Raisani but anyone who forms a government in Baluchistan. The right wing JUI has had an old policy of supporting every government in Baluchistan in return of getting important ministries. This strategy has significantly helped them to earn a lot of money through corruption and then use the same amount during their electoral campaigns. After remaining in power for so many years, the JUI has now made it very difficult for its rival parties in majority of Pashtoon areas to win elections against its candidates. Wasay is known as a political blackmailer. During the previous government, we saw him boycotting the proceedings of the Baluchistan Assembly on a number of occasions which extraordinarily embarrassed the provincial government. He has not used this card very frequently against the Raisani government yet. But the Chief Minister will surely have no options but to concede to whatever demands the Mulana puts before the government.
Syed Ehsan Shah: A former Finance Minister and the current minister for Industries, Shah is the parliamentary leader of the Baluchistan National Party (Awami). While JUI was the only party known in the past to side with every government, BNP-A is the new breed of pro-Establishment parties in Baluchistan. Claiming to be a Baloch nationalist party, BNP supported the previous government of PML-Q in Quetta and endorsed all policies of General Musharraf. Now, the same party is supporting the policies of Zardari and calling Musharraf a bad guy. Shah and his party have had an important role in Mekran region (comprising of the Baloch-majority districts of Turbat, Gwadar and Panjgur) where the National Party had a strong grip in the past. Now, the BNP-Awami is overpowering and countering the nationalist parties in Mekran region. Shah is an experienced politician who has a good knowledge of financial affairs due his stint as the finance minister for several years. In return of his support to Raisani, he has been able to accommodate around five MPAs from his party as ministers (Asadullah Baloch, Asghar Rind, Ghulam Jan Baloch, Zafarullah Zehri and himself) out of total seven BNP MPAs. Raisani trusts him and his party-mates because they are all Balochi-speakers. So, ethnic relations give Raisani more faith in Shah and vice versa against the Pashtoon-dominated JUI.
Sadiq Umrani: Sadiq Umrani is the parliamentary leader of the ruling Pakistan People’s Party and minister for Communication and Works. This is a lucrative ministry that involves too much money. This ministry is always given to someone important whose mouth the CM believes needs to be kept quite permanently. There are genuine reasons why Raisani had to give this profitable (I call it profitable because the ministers get huge amounts as kickback in return of awarding construction contracts to major firms and companies) to Umrani. Umrani is a much more senior PPP leader to Raisani and his brother Lashkari, the provincial president of the PPP. He remained in jail during the 1980s due to his commitment with the PPP. Umrani, ambitious to become PPP’s nominee for the office of chief minister, publicly opposed Raisani for the highest executive position in the province saying that Raisani was not a true PPP loyalist. The advantage Umran has is his immense popularity and widespread support among the PPPP voters while the disadvantage for him is his middle-class background. In Balochistan’s entrenched tribal set-up, it is hard for the members of the middle class families, irrespective of their democratic credentials, to achieve such key positions like the office of Chief Minster. The seemingly agreed deal between the two, the CM and Umrani, is let’s not expose each other in public. Umrani has the capability of upsetting Raisani any time. He did so in April 2009 when he accused the CM of corruption and nepotism. As a result Raisani expelled him from the provincial cabinet. However, the CM had to withdraw the decision once the central leadership of the PPP intervened and asked Raisani to take review his decisions. This clearly shows the strong links Umrani has with President Zardari and top leadership of the PPP.
Sardar Aslam Bizenjo: Bizenjo is the minister for irrigation and the parliamentary leader of the nine-member “Independent Group”. While the Baloch nationalist parties apparently boycotted the general elections of February 2008, they all secretly contested the elections by pitting candidates as Independent contenders. Bizenjo is a very close member of the National Party and the majority of the 9 Independent MPAs are in fact the members of Baloch nationalist parties such as the BNP and NP. His support for Raisani is instrumental because he plays the role of a bridge between the government and the annoyed Baloch nationalists. If Raisani starts checking the corruption of Bizenjo and his like-minded MPAs, they will overnight turn into Baloch nationalists in the Balochistan Assembly and cause serious trouble for him by raising the issue of missing persons, military operation etc. Right now, they are enjoying ministries and they prefer to keep silence on such issues that embarrass the CM. Bizenjo is also a prominent tribal leader. If his interests are harmed, then he will withdraw the support of 9 MPAs from the Raisani government which could gain the support of more MPAs keeping in view the tribal links of his with the others.
Sardar Sanaullah Zehri: He is the provincial minister for Services and General Administration. He is more popularly known as the Chief of Jhalwan or the head of Zehri tribe. In Balochistan’s tribal set-up, he is a very, very influential Sardar. He is the brother of Mir Israr Zehri, the chief of Balochistan National Party Awami and the federal minister for Postal Affairs. His younger brother, Mir Zafarullah Zehri, is currently serving as the Provincial Interior Minister. Zehri is a Baloch nationalist who remained the senior vice president of the National Party. He developed differences with his party leadership when the party decided to boycott the general elections and Zehri wanted to go ahead with the polls. As a result, he formulated his own party called National Party Parliamentarian. The inclusion of Zehri in the provincial government gives Raisani much confidence. In case Zehri pulls out of the government, it will demoralize the CM that he has lost the support of one of the most influential tribal leaders of Balochistan. Zehri has an important role to play in maintaining peace in Khuzdar district. If differences break out between him and the CM, Zehris have got the capability of making Khuzdar a ”no-go-area”. This highway connects Quetta with Karachi.
Engineer Zumurak Khan: He is the provincial Revenue Minister and the parliamentary leader of the Awami National Party (ANP). His support to Raisani gives the latter the confidence to proudly claim to have the support of Pashtoon nationalists of Balochistan. ANP is already a coalition partner of the PPP in North Western Frontier Province, Sindh and the Center. However, Mr. Khan could emerge as a threat for Raisani in case he begins to play the “Pashtoon card” by saying, for example, that the CM is not paying ample attention to the development of Pashtoon population and giving job opportunities etc. So, it is very essential for the Raisani to please Mr. Khan. The out-of parliament Pashtoonkhawai Milli Awami Party, which is more dominant in Balochistan as compared to ANP, has accused Raisani of being more pro-Baloch and doing nothing for the interests of the Pashtoons of the province. But the presence of the ANP in Balochistan government helps Raisani to say that if he did not stand for the rights of the Pashtoons then he would not include ANP leaders in his cabinet.
Mir Amanullah Notezai: Notezai is a key leader of the PML-Q (like-minded group). He is the provincial minister for Transportation. Hailing from Dalbandin area. In the previous government, he served as the minister for Excise and Taxation. His electoral constituency is known as the crossing point of the drug business from Afghanistan. In addition, he is the most influential man in the area where the Reko Dik and Sandik gold and copper projects are located. Raisani needs him to ensure safe exploration at Reko Dik and Sandik. He influences a few other MPAs of the region as well such as former home minister Mir Shoaib Nosherwani.
Mir Asim Kurd Gillo: Gillo is the current finance minister of Balochistan. He served as the minister for Revenue in the previous government. He is very influential in the PML-Q and can break and make governments. He is the closest with CM Raisani. No minister gets a chance to travel as exensively with the chief minister as Gillo. He is a multi-billionaire.
Shiek Jaffar Khan Mandokhel: Mandokhel is a seasoned politician from the Pakistan Muslim League (Q). He does not support the PML-Q faction headed by Aslam Bhoothani. He is a former finance minister. After Bhoothani, he is the only not-a-minister in the list of ten most influential men in Raisani’s government. Mandokhel is a Pashtoon and wanted to become the chief ministerial candidate of his party but his dreams shattered when a majority of the Balochi-speakers from his own party, backed by Speaker Aslam Bhoothani, preferred to vote for Raisani, a Baloch. Seeing that everyone in the Balochistan Assembly voted in support of Raisani, Mandokhel and his group of six members also offered support to Raisani. He does not have major stakes in the provincial government. Therefore, he won’t lose anything if he decides one fine morning to sit on the opposition benches.
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